Sustained Overseas Lead Ingots Inflows to Cap Domestic Lead Prices [SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes]

Futures:

Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,991/mt, fluctuating upward during the Asian session; it touched a high of $1,998/mt upon entering the European session before weakening, probing a low of $1,987.5/mt towards the close, and finally settled at $1,995/mt, up 0.1%.

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2511 contract opened low at 17,160 yuan/mt, fluctuated upward after opening to touch a high of 17,225 yuan/mt, pulled back slightly towards the close, and finally settled at 17,185 yuan/mt, up 0.17%.

On the macro front:

As investors took profits ahead of key US inflation data releases, spot gold once fell below $4,010, then rebounded to near $4,100, finally closing down 0.63%. The "shutdown" persists as the US Senate rejected a temporary funding bill for the 12th time. On tariffs: ① Reports suggest India and the US are close to a trade deal, which would lower US tariffs on India to 15%-16%. ② The Trump administration is preparing a drug investigation to pave the way for new tariffs.

Trump stated that China and the US would reach a trade deal at the APEC summit, but the leaders might not meet. China's Foreign Ministry responded that there is currently no information available. Data released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange on October 22 showed that China's total cross-border receipts and payments hit a record high of $11.6 trillion for the first three quarters of the year, up 10.5% YoY. Net cross-border capital inflows reached $119.7 billion, and the bank settlement and sales surplus was $63.2 billion, both higher than the levels seen in the same period last year.

:

SHFE lead hovered at highs, and due to limited circulating spot cargoes, suppliers mostly refused to budge on prices when selling, especially for ex-factory primary lead from smelters. Quotations from mainstream producing areas against the SMM #1 lead average price were at premiums of 50-100 yuan/mt ex-factory, with some even reported at premiums of 150-200 yuan/mt ex-factory. Spot cargoes for the current month were sold out in some regions, and pre-sales for November cargoes had begun. Downstream enterprises primarily made purchases via long-term contracts, with some rigid demand shifting to secondary lead or non-VAT cargoes. Mainstream ex-factory prices for spot orders of secondary refined lead were at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price.

Inventory: On October 22, LME lead inventory decreased by 3,175 mt to 244,125 mt; as of October 20, the total social inventory of lead ingots across five regions tracked by SMM rose to 37,700 mt, increasing by nearly 100 mt compared to October 16.

Today's Lead Price Forecast:

The import arbitrage window is currently open, and overseas lead ingots are gradually flowing in to supplement domestic supply, putting pressure on lead prices. As heating season gradually begins in north China, attention is on air quality conditions and the potential impact of smog on transportation and production at lead smelters. Downstream battery producers maintain just-in-time procurement. Battery production orders in south China, particularly the southwest, underperform compared to the north, with weaker transaction activity. Overall, short-term lead prices may maintain a fluctuating trend.

Data Source Statement: Data not derived from public information are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and not intended as decision-making advice.